Reading time: 660 words, 2 to 3 minutes

If you have friends or family in the U.S. Eastern seaboard, Canadian Maritimes and especially in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, please alert them to Hurricane Leslie. I’ve been tracking this hurricane for almost a week now when it first appeared in the mid-Atlantic.

The ass media and governments are ALWAYS behind the curve, so if your friends and family wait for ‘official’ announcements they may be short on time. Some of the presstitutes like CTV News are beginning to carry stories but they’re pretty light-hearted.

Below is a shot from Tropical Storm Risk’s website.

The broad line shows the hurricane’s past track, its present location with a dot and its projected track with a thin line. Green is a tropical storm, yellow is a Category one hurricane and darker yellow is Category two.

The dashed white circle is the ‘mean forecast error’. You’ll notice that the forecast error increases in size with distance because forecast accuracy decreases the further the distance.

It is important to note that this forecasts the eye (center) of the hurricane, NOT the over-all size. A hurricane is large storm circling around its eye and the larger the hurricane the further it extends from the eye.

This is particularly important with Hurricane Leslie because Leslie is HUGE. See the satellite photo below where I’ve highlighted in yellow the Maritimes and Newfoundland. Hurricane Leslie is the white circular storm at the bottom. The clouds surrounding the eye are so immense, the eye looks like a nipple.

To give you an idea how huge Leslie is, compare it’s size to Hurricane Michael (circular clouds) on the right side of the picture and consider that Michael was already a Category three (winds 178 to 298 KPH). Michael is forecast to weaken as it tracks north over cold water and is not expected to make landfall.

Back to hurricane Leslie. There are several factors making Leslie EXTREMELY DANGEROUS if it hits land.

1 – Its huge size means that it will create a long lasting storm with lots of rain for a very long time.

2- It’s moving VERY slowly. I don’t mean wind speed; I mean the speed at which the storm itself moves. Most hurricanes move about 20 to 30 KPH or more. Leslie is moving 4 to 5 KPH which is walking speed. This makes it even MORE DANGEROUS because it will dump rain for more than a week and at its slow speed and huge size, it could be a two week storm. In the first picture Tropical Storm Risks tracking, you see it’s so slow it’s actually looped back on itself. I have NEVER seen a hurricane this slow.

It’s taken more than a week and it’s barely even hit Bermuda. It could be another week or more before it hits the Maritimes and another week before Newfoundland.

3 – Leslie is so huge, the eastern seaboard may experience high tides, surf and rip-currents without actually seeing the storm

4 – Human psychology (ok, I really mean stupidity). Leslie is not forecast to be a dangerous Category. It’s forecast to be a Category one and may drop to Tropical Storm when it makes landfall. So, people will be complacent and think they’re safe. Leslie’s danger may not be wind speed but RAIN-INDUCED FLOODING as well as dangerous rip-currents near the ocean shore-line.

The recent Hurricane Isaac that hit Louisiana should teach us that hurricane ‘Categories’ are misleading. They measure wind speed but NOT the duration or volume of the rain nor the amount of flooding. And Leslie is much larger and much slower than Isaac which means there will be a lot more flooding.

Remember, not only are the ass media and governments always behind the curve, they may NOT have learned from Hurricane Isaac. So, keep your friends and relatives on the east coast alert and tell them they may need to prepare for HEAVY FLOODING if Leslie comes calling. Let’s hope it veers from land and stays in the Atlantic.

Gerold
September 7, 2012

Your comments are WELCOME!
.
If you like what you’ve read (or not) please “Rate This” below.
.
Lengthy comments may time-out before you’re finished so consider doing them in a word doc first then copy and paste to “Leave a Reply” below.