Coffee Harvest Crash – Price Increase Alert

Reading time: 307 words, 1 page, 1 minute.

Continuing drought in Brazil has decimated coffee plants, reduced the production of Arabica beans by 18% and driven up the price of commodity futures by 8.3%, so far. The operative phrase is ‘so far’ because price increases have not yet matched the decline in production.

After work today, I bought two tins of my favorite Safeway house brand; Edwards fine grind, to throw in the freezer for long term storage. The good news is the store price hasn’t changed since the last tin I bought in December. The bad news is the price will probably go much higher so if you need your caffeine and brew your own you better buy now while the price is still relatively cheap.

coffee vs wine

Wait, it gets worse (as if you weren’t expecting this).The El Niño weather phenomena is expected to rear its ugly head possibly as early as July. This increases the likelihood of floods in South America so the beleaguered coffee plants may go from one extreme to another; from drought to washed-away. There may be no quick end to the crash in coffee bean production which means high prices may be with us for a long time. Besides, how often do prices of essentials come down?

There may not be much you can do to avoid the price increase at your favorite take-out or drive-thru except buy beans now, freeze ‘em in and brew more of your own.

Words to the wise. Govern yourself accordingly.

April 23, 2014

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About gerold

I have a bit of financial experience having invested in stocks in the 1960s & 70s, commodities in the 80s & commercial real estate in the 90s (I sold in 2005.) I'm back in stocks. I am appalled at our rapidly deteriorating global condition so I've written articles for family, friends & colleagues since 2007; warning them and doing my best to explain what's happening, what we can expect in the future and what you can do to prepare and mitigate the worst of the economic, social, political and nuclear fallout. As a public service in 2010 I decided to create a blog accessible to a larger number of people because I believe that knowledge not shared is wasted.
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12 Responses to Coffee Harvest Crash – Price Increase Alert

  1. Ken says:

    Is there a way to stay in touch with you if this Blog is terminated? If I post my email address on here it becomes public info correct?

  2. Ken says:

    I forgot to mention I had my email account hacked this morning and had to create a new password.

  3. GBV says:


    Not coffee related, but congrats on your ZeroHedge début. Nice to see your work getting a broader recognition.


    • gerold says:


      I’m trying to control my readership and maintain a low profile to avoid coming to “the man’s” attention.

      Oh well, it was a good life. I’ll keep it up until I can’t.


  4. ken says:

    Hi, Gerold

    Better stock up on oranges and banana’s ! Another article down the pipe today by Michael Snyder.
    I seriously wonder how many people see what’s coming? Most of this generation has no clue of the Great Depression and most do not grow their own food anymore nor do they know how.

    I guess they all believe the government will pull them through just like in the 1930’s when the government had farmers dump fresh milk in the ditches instead of giving it to those going hungry.

    • gerold says:

      Wow! Another incredible link, Ken!

      I, for one, do NOT believe in coincidences. But, there are too many of these disasters piling up to be coincidental. It’s almost like the authors of the Georgia Guide Stones are behind this. See and

      And I hate to believe in conspiracies. But, you’re right to say, “Most of this generation has no clue of the Great Depression and most do not grow their own food anymore nor do they know how.” Which would be exactly how they would want us, i.e. helpless.

      Stay tuned.

      – Gerold

      • Ken says:

        Hi, Gerold
        Have you seen the job’s numbers yet for April? If not take a look at how they still try to spin the news that it could be weather related. Just amazing the hogwash that comes from these people’s mouths, yet at every turn they continue to speak of that economic growth in the US, exactly where is that growth? Maybe its In that new tax revenue created from the now legal Colorado marijuana business? (Sarcasm)
        Maybe just a little to much Kool-Aid along with that so called toxin free Fluorinated water.

        • gerold says:

          Thanks for the link, Ken. It seems Canadian unemployment statistics aren’t nearly as fudged as the U.S. which continues to unabashedly spin their so-called recovery.

          Last week’s 288,000 increase in U.S. jobs includes 224,000 ‘birth/death ratio’ i.e. imaginary jobs created by new business start-ups and over-looks the 806,000 dropped from unemployment statistics because they’ve given up looking for non-existent jobs.
          Here’s a link that covers all those new business start-ups:

          Here’s some good news. This morning, my blog host ‘WordPress’ advised me my blog account was suspended for ‘violating terms of service’ i.e. Perhaps I pi$$ed off some powerful people? I inquired and now I see the blog’s up again.

          How long remains to be seen. If I ever drop off the face of the earth again, I’ll lay low for a while then maybe start up again with another provider. We shall see.

          – Gerold

          • Ken says:

            Hi, Gerold
            It is my understanding alternative news sites are being watched.
            It may be a thought to stay low, yet they already have your IP address
            Check out a program called Hot Spot. Masks and creates an alternative IP anywhere in the world.

            Kind Regards

  5. ken says:

    Hi, Gerold

    I would like to add this to your article, as coffee is just the beginning of food increases.

    • gerold says:

      Excellent link, Ken!

      You’re right; coffee is just the beginning and the drought in California is already impacting fruit, vegetable and meat prices.

      I’ve long been a fan of Michael Snyder and his well-researched and hard-hitting articles.


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