Reading time: 372 words, 2 pages, 1 to 2 minutes.
I follow the Baltic Dry Index of global freight rates because it is a reliable leading economic indicator (forecasting the future). Shippers are unlikely to book cargo space if they have nothing to ship and the index cannot be manipulated by Central Banks like the Fed or derivative-creating banksters.
I wrote the following two months ago when the index slipped below 1,000; that, “…the over-supply of ships is now 5 year-old news so the shipping industry has had enough time to clear the surplus. In other words, we can no longer blame “too many ships” for low shipping rates. This is falling demand.
“What we’re seeing is a collapse in commodity demand (and prices) and a massive slowdown in China along with the rest of the world which never really recovered from the Great Recession.” Good grief, now I’m quoting myself!
Less than two weeks ago I wrote in Circling Closer to the Drain 2015 that the index had fallen to 709 which was equal to the levels last seen in 1986.
Now, we have set a new all-time record low. Zero Hedge headlines “The World’s Best Known Global Shipping Index has Crashed To Its Lowest Level Ever” and that it has “fallen for 47 of the last 51 days” and that, “the index of global shipping costs has never (ever) been lower at 554.”
So much for the so-called global economic recovery. Recessions typically occur every four to six years. It’s now more than seven years since the last ‘Great Recession” began in December 2007 so we’re overdue for another big one.
The Baltic Dry Index’s new all-time low tells us the next recession will be far worse than the last one. My gut-feeling is this time there will be No Recovery, Ever.
Are you prepared? If not, you’re running out of time. Fast.
February 9, 2015
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