US Election Year SPIN in High Gear

Reading time: 1,520 words, 4 to 6 minutes

We face an onslaught of spin, hype & propaganda entering the U.S. election year circus. Put on your skeptical hats because “Everything is Wonderful” is being drilled into our heads.

Last week’s announcement of 200,000 new U.S. jobs in December had the ass media all aflutter. Here’s an example from one of the major cheerleaders, The New York Times:

U.S. Added 200,000 Jobs in December; Unemployment Down to 8.5%

“The United States added 200,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, in a sign that the economic recovery has built up a head of steam.

“The nation’s unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent from 8.6 percent in November, the government said.

“The employment report built on a flurry of heartening economic news in December, when consumer confidence rose, manufacturing came in strong and small businesses showed signs of life. It was the sixth straight month that the economy has added more than 100,000 jobs.”

Back to reality:

Ok, you’ve had your daily injection of euphorium. Now, let’s look at the facts, just the facts.
– Prieur du Plessis reports that “U.S. jobs growth lags historical pace”

In other words, the growth in jobs is good but not good enough. Compare the last decade with previous decades in the chart below.


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– If the current 2010s decade achieves it’s very optimistic 10% jobs growth based on the last two years, it will still be only half the last two decades 20% and much less than half the prior decades going back to the 1940s. That sounds like Japanese-style stagnation that Japan has endured for more than two decades.

– We’re only one year into this decade and 2012 is an election year. The U.S. government and political interests are pulling out all the stops to spark some life into the carcass of the U.S. economy.

– The corpse’s spasms will be interpreted as renewed life; good news in an election year.

– Then the mild stimulus will wear off. Emphasis on ‘mild’! Decades ago, several dollars or economic stimulus were generated by one ‘injected’ dollar. Today, the government needs to inject more then $20 to produce less than 50 cents. That too, sounds like Japanese-style stagnation.

– Also, on the chart above; notice how the 2000s decades compares with the rest? The 2000’s decade actually lost more jobs than it began with. Plus, not seen on the chart is the U.S. population grew at 10% during that decade. In other words, The U.S. is coming from behind in making up for lost jobs. That sounds worse than Japanese-style stagnation.

– The Wall Street Journal reports this. “While the news is positive, it does not yet indicate a full recovery from recession levels. Overall job gain in 2011 was 1.6 million jobs, for a total of 131.9 million nonfarm jobs. That total is 6.1 million fewer jobs than in January 2008, when the downturn began. There were 13.1 million Americans unemployed in December 2011”

– It’s grimmer when you dig a little deeper. On Friday, Jim Sinclair reported on the real numbers. Seasonal adjustment (fudging) is questionable. Zero Hedge reports 42,000 so-called jobs were a seasonal quirk that will be adjusted next month. This brings the real increase to 158,000 which, if you’ve been reading previous commentaries, you’ll remember is about the ‘break-even’ level. In other words it’s enough to keep pace with population growth but not enough to even begin recovering lost jobs.

Even with that error, December jobs readings were well below pre-2007 and pre-2001 Recession levels.

– U6 Unemployment is “officially” at 15.2%. Greg Hunter of USA Watchdog writes, “If unemployment was calculated the way BLS did it in 1994 and earlier, it would be 22.4% according to Williams” [of Shadowstats.com.] That sounds far worse than Japanese-style stagnation.

– Also, money supply M3 annual growth tops 3% for the first time in 2 years. In other words, unofficial Quantitative Easing – QE 2 continued, QE3 or QE Forever-until-it-all-collapses is continuing until it all collapses and Americans long for the glory days of a Japanese-style stagnation.

IN OTHER NEWS

Credit Binge Financed the Holidays

A 9.9% increase in consumer debt in November made U.S. Christmas retail sales look good. The downside is increased debt.

War with Iran

Preparations for the Iranian War began long ago. Stratfor intelligence has been chronicling the Cold War with Iran since at least 2007. Wounded Amerika flailing in its death throes (for a long time yet) has now set its sights on Iran as its next military target. Coincidentally, Iran is the world’s second largest oil & gas producer.

War with Iran has Started – “Troops have been Deployed”

Note: this is a 2008 report. In other words, this has been a long time in the making.

Also, Stuxnet and other virulent computer viruses sabotaged Iran’s nuclear centrifuges in 2010. Mysterious explosions in Iran are recently killing key Iranian nuclear experts. The Iranians have recently captured an advanced U.S. drone spy aircraft which had “inadvertently” wandered into Iranian airspace. The Iranians are conducting military exercises on the Afghan border and Naval exercises to demonstrate their prowess.

The Iranians are Persian, not Arabian. Iranians are clever, not stupid. They know they’d lose much in an all-out war. What they’re doing is playing for time. Once they have nuclear weapons, Iran will join the nuclear club along with neighbors Israel, India, Pakistan and Russia. What we’re seeing now is saber-rattling. It makes for great news but WW III hasn’t started yet.

MACLEANS jinxes Canada

Gee, thanks Macleans magazine but, being the infernal cynic, I can’t help but wonder if the Canadian poll article “On top of the world” isn’t a jinx or the “kiss of death”.

Glad I’m not superstitious. Just sayin’.

Yeah, Canadians feel pretty good about themselves, eh? However, so did first the Icelanders and then the Irish before their bubbles burst.

Also, I get real nervous when I smell the euphorium and hear the famous last words IT’S DIFFERENT this time, or this place or insert your favorite delusion. No chil’un, it’s never different. Same shit, different pile. Only thing we don’t know is WHEN.

Profile of Anonymous

Here’s how the ass media portrays “Anonymous”

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Surviving the Future

Regular readers know that you need to reduce and get out of debt to survive the next decade or more. Here’s an interesting investment direction and another reason to get out of debt and into cash.

80 Year Depression Cycle

A historical review of the 80 year cycle of depressions, paradigm shifts, and revolutions. We entered the last depression in 1929 and entered our most recent depression in December 2007, (which we are currently still in) 80 years later. The brunt of the pain in our current depression will be felt at the back end, (2012 – 2015) where the value of many assets will collapse and create once in a lifetime investment opportunities.
The Future Tense, Nov 5, 2011

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Predictions for 2012 & beyond

– It’s an election year so they’ll pull out all the stops to keep the boat afloat on promises, pretence & propaganda. Jim Rogers. He says, “. . . they’re going to make us all feel better for a while.” In other words; money printing, more debt, market manipulation, bankruptcies, bailouts & pillage. In other words; the usual but more and, after the November election, the whole house of cards comes crashing down. The proximity to December 21 is unsettling.

– Your money will buy less of the things you need.

– Ass media continues focusing on the Euro crisis to distract from the continuing American collapse.

– The Euro survives.

– Real Estate deflation in more parts of the world and continuing price slides wherever bubbles have already burst.

– More banksters pillaging the financial system, pensions, widows & orphans.

– More volatility in all markets.

– More unrest world-wide. Rioting and violent protests in the U.S., the UK, Europe & elsewhere.

– Democratic & Republican presidential conventions will be over-run by demonstrators with much violence.

– If Ron Paul actually becomes a Presidential contender, he’ll suffer a fatality.

– 46 million Americans on Food Stamps reaches 50 million by year end.

– Peace does NOT descend on the Middle East. Ok, that goes without saying.

– Increased MAYHEM world-wide as fragile systems sunder.

– Lots of tin foil hat nut cases will come out of the woodwork for the End of the World, Dec. 21, 2012 so expect some entertainment for free. Just make sure you’re watching and not part of it.

Otherwise, nothing genuinely positive to report so if you’ve had enough gloom as I have and you need a few chuckles, visit the expanded Humor Category.

Stay tuned. There’ll be more.

Gerold
January 15, 2012

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About gerold

I have a bit of financial experience having invested in stocks in the 1960s & 70s, commodities in the 80s & commercial real estate in the 90s (I sold in 2005.) I am appalled at our rapidly deteriorating global condition so I've written articles for family, friends & colleagues since 2007; warning them and doing my best to explain what's happening, what we can expect in the future and what you can do to prepare and mitigate the worst of the economic, social, political and nuclear fallout. As a public service in 2010 I decided to create a blog accessible to a larger number of people because I believe that knowledge not shared is wasted.
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